After two huge preliminary finals, Geelong and Brisbane will face off in this year’s AFL Grand Final.
These are the key points which will decide where the premiership ends up.
GEELONG
1. WHO MENDS THE HEARTBREAK?
It’s heartbreak for Tom Stewart, who is going to miss the chance at a second AFL premiership due to his concussion. But while Chris Scott labelled the situation as “shattering”, he and his coaching staff are already huddling around a whiteboard, deciphering who is his replacement. Ruck Rhys Stanley is barely a like-for-like, but he’s closing in on a return and the Cats have the ultra-flexible Mark Blicavs able to roll back and fill the void. Or Jed Bews, who’s played just four games this year, could come in as a lockdown medium defender and free up Zach Guthrie to intercept. Or maybe Mitch Duncan gets a chance for a fairytale finish. There’s plenty of options for Scott to mull over.
2. WELCOME TO THE DANGER ZONE
Cometh the moment. Cometh the captain. It was an incredible, matchwinning performance from Patrick Dangerfield. 31 touches, eight clearances, three goals and countless starring moments in the preliminary final win over Hawthorn. The Cats have used Dangerfield as a deep forward option, often leading out of the goalsquare, for almost the entire season. But when the whips are cracking and a game is on the line, like it was in the second and third quarter, Scott moved his best soldiers into positions they could inflict the most damage. Dangerfield left Hawthorn midfielders in his dust, at age 35, as he burst out of congestion time after time.
3. OFF-CUTS AT A PREMIUM
It’s one thing to turn bargain selections into good players that fit a best 23 system, it’s another for them to dominate on the biggest stages. Gryan Miers (27 disposals, one goal) was the No. 57 pick in 2017 draft, Tom Atkins (25 disposals, 11 tackles) was a rookie draftee, Tyson Stengle (15 touches, three goals) was a delisted free agent and Shaun Mannagh (15 touches, two goals) was a VFL product at Werribee. And Irish import Oisin Mullin kept Nick Watson to just five touches. The kudos will go to Bailey Smith and Dangerfield in their starring roles, but the Cats don’t make a grand final without the off-Broadway guns producing on the big stage.
4. NO RUCKING WORRIES
They had no Rhys Stanley, and that might change in a week’s time, but winning the hit outs has never been a big talking point in Geelong’s midweek meetings. In the 19 games the Cats have won this year, they have gone 5-1-13 in the hit out battle. Instead, the ball hits the deck and Geelong’s engine room is good enough to win the clearances at an alarming rate (20-5 centre clearance, 30-28 stoppage clearance vs Hawthorn), and the defensive unit’s ability to quell opposing threats and create chances on the turnover is elite.
5. A HABIT HARD TO LOSE
It’s not quite the winning streak of 2022, where the Cats piled on 16 straight victories on the way to a premiership. But if Geelong wins next Saturday it’ll be the ninth-straight win to finish the season, a streak that towers over its premiership rivals. Brisbane won five in a row in 2024, and Collingwood won four to finish 2023, showing it’s hard to string wins together through August and September.
BRISBANE LIONS
1. RUCK DILEMMA
Brisbane brought back Oscar McInerney for a huge clash against Jarrod Witts and the Suns in the semi final, and then they backed in him and Oscar McInerney against Darcy Cameron. But what about Rhys Stanley, or Mark Blicavs, or Sam De Koning? Geelong is statistically one of the worst ruck teams out of the finalists, but boasts a midfield that sharks off its opponents’ taps. So does Brisbane prefer one ruck and a key forward? Neither ruck kicked a goal in the preliminary final, which might force Chris Fagan’s hand.
2. INJURY WATCH
It’s going to be a watch all week. Jarrod Berry was subbed out with another shoulder issue, having injured it against Fremantle in round 23. Is it the same issue, something that caused him to miss just round 24? But there was the pre-season bye that also helped him come back, can he return for a grand final? There will be plenty of discussion surrounding Lachie Neale’s calf injury that had him initially ruled out for the season. But the medical team at Brisbane is confident he is in line to play in the grand final – can he get there in time?
3. BROTHERLY LOVE
Who would you rather? Collingwood duo Nick and Josh Daicos, or Brisbane’s Will and Levi Ashcroft. Nick Daicos could be wearing a Brownlow Medal on Monday night, it was Will Ashcroft who snatched the game away from the Pies on Saturday. Two important third-quarter goals helped the Lions separate in a rampant display and helped Will add to his burgeoning September legacy. Levi was not as influential, but Brisbane doesn’t win that game without Will.
4. FOURTH TIME OUT
The qualifying final feels like a lifetime ago, but in reality it’ll be 22 days between bouts for these grand final teams. And Brisbane was embarrassed at the MCG against Geelong, who took the lead in the sixth minute of the game and never let up again. Geelong had 60 inside 50s in a dominant display of football – Brisbane struggled to gain and retain possession. It’ll be a rematch on the same ground, something will need to change for the Lions. But Brisbane will lean on two wins in 2025 over the Cats – at the Gabba and GMHBA Stadium – to prepare for Saturday.
5. TAG – YOU’RE IT!
Geelong will send its defensive trio to Brisbane’s stars, but will the Lions repay the favour? Expect Irish lockdown Oisin Mullin to get Hugh McCluggage after blanketing him in the qualifying final, Tom Atkins to stand on Lachie Neale (if fit) or Josh Dunkley’s shoulder, and Mark O’Connor likely gets the job on Zac Bailey or Cam Rayner. But with Bailey Smith, Max Holmes and Patrick Dangerfield dominant against the Hawks, who blinks next? Could Jarrod Berry – if he plays – get a defensive job on one of the big three.
Brisbane showed plenty of fight in the win over Collingwood – it exploded to a six-goal margin late in the last quarter seemingly out of thin air. But the injuries don’t mean nothing; Geelong is incredibly healthy and the Lions are hanging on by a thread. The Lions couldn’t answer the Cats in the qualifying final and it’ll be the same on Saturday.
Geelong by 17 points
